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Ryan Says Trump Will Promote House Agenda -- You Know What That Means for Medicare!

No one was really surprised when House Speaker Paul Ryan lined up behind the rest of the GOP party leadership to endorse Donald Trump.  It’s also not too surprising that Ryan is confident Trump will support the Ryan/House agenda, regardless of his pesky campaign promises to leave seniors’ programs alone:

“We’ve discussed how the House can be a driver of policy ideas. We’ve talked about how important these reforms are to saving our country. Through these conversations, I feel confident he would help us turn the ideas in this agenda into laws to help improve people’s lives. That’s why I’ll be voting for him this fall.”...Rep. Paul Ryan

Modern Healthcare says:

“Last month, I raised the question of whether Trump would follow the politically risky healthcare policy path Ryan has blazed on Medicare, Medicaid and other big issues.

The House speaker apparently has concluded that he would.

Ryan
 has spearheaded a series of partisan House budget outlines that would significantly restructure Medicare and Medicaid and sharply reduce federal spending on those two programs. The Wisconsin Republican wants to convert Medicare into a defined-contribution, voucher-style program and change Medicaid into a capped state block grant program. Some experts say the plan would impose significantly higher costs on seniors.”

Let’s not forget that it’s already been reported by sources in on the Ryan/Trump Capitol Hill meeting that cutting Social Security and Medicare was something Trump could “morally support”.  He just doesn’t think he can win if he says it.

“From a moral standpoint, I believe in it,” Trump told Ryan. “But you also have to get elected. And there’s no way a Republican is going to beat a Democrat when the Republican is saying, ‘We’re going to cut your Social Security’ and the Democrat is saying, ‘We’re going to keep it and give you more.’ ”

Which also fits with the message his campaign staff delivered to fiscal hawks at last month’s annual Pete Peterson “how to cut middle-class benefits” soiree:

“After the administration has been in place, then we will start to take a look at all of the programs, including entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare. We’ll start taking a hard look at those to start seeing what we can do in a bipartisan way.”

 

“...I think that whoever [is] the next president is going to have a horrible time in dealing with this, because those entitlements will race to the front of all the economic issues we have in this country.”...Sam Clovis, Trump campaign chief policy advisor.

So, while Trump’s actual plans for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid remain ever-elusive Paul Ryan’s plans for these programs – which he apparently believes President Trump will deliver on – are very clear

“The House GOP’s budget would privatize Medicare with a voucher plan, leaving seniors and the disabled – some of our most vulnerable Americans – hostage to the whims of private insurance companies.  Over time, this will end traditional Medicare and make it harder for seniors to choose their own doctor.  Vouchers will not keep up with the increasing cost of health insurance… that is why seniors will pay more.  Incredibly, the GOP budget also tries to have it both ways by counting the savings in Medicare since the passage of health care reform and then repealing the law that delivered those same savings. Seniors need to pay careful attention to this next fact: if the GOP isn’t stopped from repealing healthcare reform, Medicare beneficiaries would immediately lose billions in prescription drug savings, wellness visits and preventative services with no out-of-pocket costs, and years of solvency will be lost to the Medicare program.” ...Max Richtman, NCPSSM President/CEO.

Obama Joins the Boost Social Security Movement

President Obama’s speech in Indiana yesterday was seen by many as our first glimpse at his future role as campaigner-in-chief for 2016 Presidential and Congressional races.  He provided a detailed repudiation of GOP economic ideas generally and Donald Trump’s morphing plans specifically. The real surprise came when the President, for the first time ever, supported the growing grassroots movement to boost Social Security benefits:

“We have to tackle retirement security. That is something that keeps a lot of people up at night.  That is why we have taken action already to make it easier for more workers to stay with their jobs, to make sure that you – when you do save – it is not in Wall Street’s best interest but your best interest. Even if they have an account set up, American’s don’t have enough money at the end of the month to put into it. They are barely making the bills. That is why Social Security is more important than ever.

We cannot afford to weaken Social Security, we should be strengthening Social Security. Not only do we need to strengthen it, it is time we finally made Social Security more generous and increase the benefits so that today’s retirees and future generations get the dignified retirement that they have earned. We could start paying for it by asking the wealthiest Americans to contribute a little bit more. I can afford it.”...President Obama, Elkhart, Indiana June 2, 2016.

Of course, none of this is news to millions of retirees, people with disabilities, survivors and their families who depend on the Social Security benefits they’ve earned. Vast majorities of Americans, both Republicans and Democrats, agree on ways to strengthen Social Security — without cutting benefits. Fully 74% of Republicans and 88% of Democrats agree that “it is critical to preserve Social Security even if it means increasing Social Security taxes paid by working Americans.

“The American people have known for a long time that the disconnect between Congress’ economic goals and what the average family actually needs has grown into a gaping political chasm.  President Obama’s support of boosting Social Security benefits marks an important shift away from the billion dollar campaign -- led by the anti-Social Security lobby and their Congressional supporters -- to cut middle-class benefits which has dominated Washington’s political debate for years. 

Americans know first-hand that the average $1,300 monthly Social Security retirement benefit isn’t too generous.  They know that this year’s zero cost of living allowance isn’t too generous.  They see a growing amount of their Social Security check going to pay for rising healthcare costs and skyrocketing drug prices. These are the cold economic realities that have spurred the Boost Social Security movement and will not be ignored.  I challenge Congressional leaders and candidates alike to follow the President’s lead and offer their support for any of the important boost Social Security bills currently introduced in Congress.”...Max Richtman, NCPSSM President/CEO

The National Committee has been working closely with Congressional allies on Social Security for decades and we support numerous pieces of legislation which would boost benefits for American workers who’ve contributed over a lifetime to build the program. We owe a true debt of gratitude to Congressional Members who’ve actually listened to what average Americans tell them about the importance of Social Security and led the movement shifting Washington’s conversation about Social Security away from a decades-long political strategy of cutting benefits to boosting benefits. Among them: Senators Sanders, Warren, and retired Senator Tom Harkin plus the House Seniors Task Force  and Progressive Caucus.

But the true challenge is to turn campaign rhetoric into action. We’d like to hear all candidates who promise to “save” Social Security provide their detailed strategy for Social Security expansion and long-term solvency solutions. 

Empty promises simply aren’t enough.

Now’s the time to join the Boost Social Security movement and help us keep the momentum going and the pressure on!

Trump’s Debt Idea = Social Security Default

 

The latest idea from Donald Trump, the GOP Presidential candidate and self-proclaimed “king of debt,” would have devastating effects on the Social Security Trust Fund. While we could write pages on the Treasury bond market, federal debt and the Social Security Trust fund, chances are you wouldn’t want to read it, so instead, here is a quick summary of the issue.  

Starting first with The Donald’s plan to run the U.S. government like one of his failing casinos.  He described it on CNN:

“If we can buy back government debt at a discount -- in other words, if interest rates go up and we can buy bonds back at a discount -- if we are liquid enough as a country we should do that. ... People said I want to go and buy debt, and default on debt. These people are crazy. This is the United States government. First of all, you never have to default because you print the money, I hate to tell you, OK? So there's never a default. ... I'm the king of debt. I understand debt better than probably anybody. I know how to deal with debt very well. I love debt. But, you know, debt is tricky, and it's dangerous; you have to be careful, and you have to know what you're doing.”

Both the Motley Fool and The Economist have raised red flags on what this strategy would actually mean for the Social Security Trust Fund -- which has $2.79 trillion invested in Treasury notes that Trump is apparently willing to devalue.

“Debt issued by the U.S. government is done so with the ‘full faith and credit’ of the United States. To consider allowing U.S. debt to get into a situation that incites a crash in bond prices would probably undermine the high quality ratings bestowed on U.S. debt and raise major red flags in the U.S. stock market and in markets around the world that look to the U.S. as a rock-solid financial leader.

The single largest holder of U.S. debt is the Social Security Trust, which held 16% of outstanding national debt at the end of Q1 2013. Other federal programs holding U.S. debt include the Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust, military retirement fund, and federal civil-service retirement and disability fund. If Trump were to consider buying back debt at a discount it would potentially reduce the investment value of the Social Security Trust, which generally invests its cash reserves in extremely safe, interest-bearing U.S. Treasury notes. Doing so could wind up hurting current and future retirees who depend on this key federal program."

The Economist reminds us this approach is what got Greece into so much fiscal hot water:

“The idea, it seems, would be to get creditors {editor’s note: in the case of the Social Security Trust Fund that’s seniors, the disabled and survivors} to accept less than 100 cents on the dollar. This happens with corporate bankruptcies; if the market price has fallen to 60 cents on the dollar, and been snapped up by specialist hedge funds, then redeeming the debt at 70 cents on the dollar may be a good deal. Emerging economies have done the same in the past when they have fallen on hard times; it happened in Greece.

But with Treasury bonds, investors expect to get 100 cents on the dollar. It is the risk-free asset that underpins the entire global financial system. A forced deal, of course, would count as a default. Treasury bonds are at the heart of the financial system. Banks use them as collateral for loans; insurance companies hold them as reserves; pension funds own then to fund retirement benefits; mutual funds own them as well. Any default within the system would have cataclysmic consequences for the economy that would far outweigh any gains in refinancing costs. To cap it all, the Federal Reserve owns almost $2.5 trillion of Treasury bonds and the Social Security Fund some $2.8 trillion. So the government would, in part, be defaulting to itself.

In short, this seems like a completely nonsensical idea. Do you think it is possible that Mr Trump didn't think it through and just said the first words that came into his head? Couldn't be.”

The takeaway from all of this is that Donald Trump’s claims that he’ll “leave Social Security alone” is an empty promise because, if his debt plan becomes reality, the Social Security Trust will lose years of solvency and the billions of dollars contributed to the Trust Fund by American workers will actually be worth only pennies on the dollar.  

Celebrating Older Americans Month

Chances are if you, or anyone in your family, is 65 or older your life has been impacted by an Older Americans Act program.  From Meals on Wheels to senior centers, prevention of physical and financial abuse, computer training to legal assistance, OAA programs touch the lives of millions of seniors and their families.  This myriad of programs provides home and community-based services making it possible for older adults to remain independent, but they’ve continually faced flat or shrinking budgets at a time of growing needs.  Funding programs that allow seniors to age in place is cost-effective; however, the Older Americans Act languished for more than 5 years without Congressional reauthorization. 

Thankfully, this year is different.  Today we are celebrating Older Americans Month with a newly reauthorized OAA, signed by President Obama just a few weeks ago:

“The President believes in the Older Americans Act because it funds services that are central to older adults’ health and lasting independence, such as meals, job training, transportation, and health promotion.  And for those who do need consistent care, the law provides nursing home protections and enhances the Long-Term Care Ombudsman programs.”  Valerie Jarrett, Senior Advisor and Assistant to the President

The celebration continues as The Leadership Council of Aging Organizations (@LCAgingOrgs), chaired by the National Committee, will host a Twitter chat on May 24 @ 1-2 p.m. ET to celebrate Older Americans Month—and call for funding investments in Older Americans Act programs. You’re invited to join the chat using #WeAreOAA.

Join at www.twitter.com/#WeAreOAA or at http://twubs.com/WeAreOAA

Trump Campaign Admits They’re Open to “Entitlement Changes”

It was just a matter of time...

The Trump campaign was a participant in yesterday’s annual Pete Peterson fiscal summit which each year brings together the nation’s so-called “fiscal hawks” for a full day of doom-and-gloom prognosticating about how Social Security and Medicare will bankrupt America.  In case you’ve forgotten, multi-billionaire Wall Streeter and former Nixon Commerce Secretary Pete Peterson, has committed to spend a billion dollars in his war on America’s safety net programs.  This annual wing-ding for Washington’s “very important people” is just one of the many ways he spends that money. 

Now, you might think Donald Trump would be an unlikely guest at this event given his break from conservatives and often-stated position that he won’t cut Social Security and Medicare. In truth, Trump’s campaign was right at home with the Peterson crowd as his chief policy advisor, Sam Clovis, provided participants a fuller description of what Trump actually plans if elected President. It was music to the anti-Social Security crowd’s ears:

“After the administration has been in place, then we will start to take a look at all of the programs, including entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare. We’ll start taking a hard look at those to start seeing what we can do in a bipartisan way.”

“...I think that whoever [is] the next president is going to have a horrible time in dealing with this, because those entitlements will race to the front of all the economic issues we have in this country.”

In other words, candidate Trump will continue to promise no cuts to Social Security and Medicare on the campaign trail.  However, President Trump clearly has a very different plan. 

As in all things Trump, he’s provided himself an out.  If voters read the fine print, Trump’s claims to leave Social Security and Medicare are completely dependent on the full adoption of his ever-morphing economic plan which promises budgetary magic turning a nearly $10 trillion deficit into a $7 trillion surplus (while also cutting taxes even further for corporations and the wealthy, increasing military spending, building a massive wall and deporting millions).  Even conservative columnists, who are thrilled to hear he is willing to cut Social Security and Medicare, left the event stunned:

“Clovis’s fiscal insouciance was breathtaking. ‘Our proposals, what we think will happen, will lead us in fact to about a $4.5 to $7 trillion surplus at the end of 10 years, if all of our initiatives are put in place,’ he said.

Pause for a moment to appreciate the audacity of this claim. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that deficits will total another $9.4 trillion during this period. So Trump is purporting to pay for his $10 trillion tax cut, plus eliminate that additional deficit, plus amass a surplus amounting to several trillion more? Outlandish is too kind a word for this.” ...Ruth Marcus, Washington Post columnist

“I understand less about Trump’s budget plan after listening to Clovis than I did before,” tweeted David Wessel of the Brookings Institution.

Maybe so...but Trump’s real plans for Social Security and Medicare are now much clearer.  




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